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Apr
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Written by:
David Press
4/5/2011 8:26 PM
Having read QBE's ( QBE-ASX) AGM presentation today, I have to say that I feel pretty comfortable with my decision to hold and buy more of this stock in the last 12 months or so. Despite the fact the share price has underperformed significantly compared to the overall market, the underlying performance of the insurance business has been quite strong, giving me the feeling that at current share prices, this company ticks the boxes of a quality value investment.
To understand why I think QBE offers good value, you need to understand the business and how they derive a profit. To put it simply, QBE derives income from two main sources. The first is the insurance profit they make on writing insurance, that is, the difference between insurance premiums received and insurance claims paid out. The second and at times very lucrative income source, is the investment income derived by cash reserves or “float” the company holds for future claims. The beauty of this lies in the fact that the insurance company receives the premiums up front, but doesn't payout until an claimable event. In the meantime, the insurance company invests those funds in liquid assets and normally makes a tidy profit in doing so. Essentially they are making profit on other people's funds. Warren Buffet identified the benefits of this key idea very early on in his investment career and formed a large part of the Berkshire Hathaway business around it.
For the 2010 financial year, QBE posted a drop in net profit of 17%, to $1.28b, however the company's underwriting profit was up some 19% to $1.17b. The main cause of the drop in the net profit figure was due to the poor investment returns on their float. The GFC resulted in drastic drops in yields from cash and fixed income investments, in which QBE is heavily invested. QBE's average yield on their investment funds/float was just 2.9%, down from 4.5% in 2009.
It is from the above financial results that I find the basis of my opinion that the medium to long term prospects for QBE are quite rosy. The underlying business is performing outstandingly, with QBE's reputation for well priced and quality acquisitions being further strengthened in 2010. The management team now believe that underwriting profit before tax could grow by around 30% in 2011 due to better than expected performance by the company's recent acquisitions. The investment performance is also looking positive in the medium term, that is if you are a believer in the recovery in worldwide markets.
QBE's management make note that given the short term liquid investments they are positioned in, any increases in interest rates in Europe, UK and the US (some 57% of their investments are held in these currencies) will result in increased investment returns. With inflation creeping up at an almost alarming rate in the Euro zone and the UK, I would think it won't be too long until we see rate rises by each of their central banks. The US on the other hand is probably a little further away in terms of rate rises, however with the employment market looking up (albeit slowly) and other key indicators pointing to a recovery, the chances of more quantitative easing is less likely. In the medium to long term, the prospect of inflation in the US and the subsequent rate rises that normally follow could result in significant increases in the investment performance of QBE. Management predict an increase in yields to between 3.3% and 3.5% for 2011.
Value investors look to invest in companies that are priced below the company's intrinsic value, normally at times where the rest of the market are shunning the company. In my opinion, QBE offers investors a chance to buy a very well managed company, with a long term reputation for quality returns, at a time where short term market factors have pushed many investors away.
The management team at QBE are exceptional performers, with a history of very well priced acquisitions as well as creating a profitable and low risk culture among underwriters. QBE's management have often been touted as a source of competitive advantage for the company, and I have to say I would agree with the idea. The efforts of the management team has resulted in superior returns on shareholder equity over the long term, yet another key aspect to many a value investor. Assuming you believe in a recovery in world markets, it would appear that those returns on equity will return to the high levels of recent years and should add significant upside pressure to the share price.
In terms of valuations of the company, I have a conservative short to medium term valuation of $19b-$22b (market cap) which equates to a share prices in the $19-$22 per share range. In the longer term, given the growth in written premiums (which is likely to continue given the management team's indication that they are still looking at potential acquisitions) and increases in yields on their cash investments, we could see significant upside valuations. I'm not one to predict the longer term market gyrations, especially in times like these, however given the enormous sums of money pumped into world economies, I am of the opinion that inflationary pressures should result in a return to normalised interest rates and yields on fixed income and cash investments. This should result in significant increases in QBE's profit results.
In recent months QBE's share price has traded down in to the $16 per share range on a number of occasions and has traded for extended periods in the $17 per share range. I am of the opinion that such prices offer a cheap entry point into a very strong and well run company. Value investors should be very interested at the prospect of buying such a high quality business at a significant discount to it's intrinsic value. I for one am definitely keeping a close eye on the market movements in the hope of picking up more cheap stock should the opportunity arise.
Disclaimer: I am a holder of QBE shares. I am not a professional advisor and as such, no investment decisions should be made on the basis of my work. Always seek advice from a licensed professional advisor before making any investment decision.
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As expected, the ECB raised the benchmark interest rates to 1.25% in order to quell inflation. Meanwhile, in the UK, the rates were left at record lows. I'll be surprised if rates don't move in the UK in the near future.
Article from Bloomberg on the ECB rate rise.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-07/ecb-raises-key-interest-rate-to-1-25-to-stem-faster-inflation.html
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The BOE today announced no change in record low rates of 0.5% in the UK. ECB announcement is imminent and most expect them to also keep rates steady.
It appears some patience will be required for QBE investors, however with inflation above targets, it seems only a matter of time until the BOE, ECB and the US Reserve Bank begin raising rates.
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